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The Journal Editorial Report

News/Business. Paul Gigot discusses news, politics, society and finance. (CC) (Stereo)

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Paul 14, Egypt 14, U.s. 5, Obama 4, Haiti 3, Obama Administration 2, Omar Suleiman 2, Clinton 2, Obama Care 2, United States 2, Israel 2, Tunisia 2, Roberts 1, Anthony Kennedy 1, Tom Carper 1, Paul : Dan 1, Polly Wolly 1, George W. Bush 1, Diehl 1, Cia 1,
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  FOX News    The Journal Editorial Report    News/Business. Paul Gigot discusses news,  
   politics, society and finance. (CC) (Stereo)  

    February 5, 2011
    11:00 - 11:30pm EST  

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needed him most. he said he was a man of kindness, simplicity, and decency which marked his entire life. very strong words putting into perspective the legacy of our 40th president. by the way, fox will be at the reagan library tomorrow for the birthday events and commemorations. so watch for that good to have you along on "the fox report." >> what role should the u.s. play in the transition. and obama care in critical condition. a federal judge ruled it unconstitutional. and a revolt brews in the states with some governors say they will stop implementing it immediately. what's next in the legal and political fight.
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>> welcome to the journal editorial report, i'm paul gigot. the uprising in egypt turned bloody this week as supporters of president mubarak clashed with protesters in cairo's liberation square. in errant view mubarak blamed the outlawed muslim brotherhood for the violence and said he would like to step down right away but fears his resignation would plunge the country further into chaos. the director of the middle east studies program at the school of advanced international studies at johns hopkins university. he is also an adjunct fellow at stanford's university hoover institution and frequent contributor to the "wall street journal." we appreciate. >> thank you very much. >> paul: have you been predicting trouble in egypt for a long time. close following the country for a long time. everybody is saying mubarak has to go, even mubarak. >> this is a seminole moment for the egyptian people. the house of mubarak has fallen.
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the despot has fallen. pharaoh has lost respect and trust of his people. his wife have fallen, his two sons. you know, one son was supposed to be his grand prince. the house of mubarak has fallen. the man has to make a choice for himself and for his country. the game is up for him. >> he wants to stay on, he says, through some transition through election later this year. the united states now is saying you need to go more quickly and certainly the protesters in the street are saying that what do you think should happen? is it better if he leaves early or late. >> the protesters don't trust him. they don't think -- they have deep suspicion of him as a man. i mean, this is really he has lost the man democrats fully. they feel if he were to stay, it would seem like he is running out the clock that he would rig the system or even cheat. they have gone out to the streets and -- summarized in one
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word. be gone. they want him to be gone. it's become this classic standoff if he himself can challenge them, if he can defy their wishes. if he can defy the wishes of the people he will have won. if they forced him out the democratic possibility of egypt may not materialize. we don't know. >> paul: do you think his vice president omar suleiman, if mubarak did resign as the u.s. is urging him privately asee understand it, do you think suleiman could organize across the various sectors of the scioto to pull it off. >> suleiman is mubarak's mubarak. because this rebellion has, in fact, come to focus on the personality of mubarak, that there may be running room for omar suleiman, he may come and says look i will be the one to draws up a new social contract for egypt. the old social contract has collapsed. historical irony to this when
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mubarak succeeded on war is a democrat when he was struck down in 1981 with mubarak next to him, the people of egypt gave mubarak enormous room. he healed the wounds and the controversy controversies of the is a democrat sadat. he was a modest man and kept a peaceful israel. he tried, if you will it, diffuse the tensions in egyptian society that's the on war is a democrat triggered. it would be that he would heed the lessons of mubarak's own course. >> what do you think the role the military has played so far? they have refused to intervene in the sense of siding with the regime and violently and cracking down the protesters. they didn't stop some of the violence mubarak supporters from attacking protesters, but so far it's been a pretty responsible role. do you see that in military as an institution that is crucial to the outcome here? >> well, look, this is the black
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box of this whole equation. this is the black box. this is the unknown. the role of the army. the states in egypt belongs to the army. the state belongs to the army that pulled off the great revolution in 1952, allegedly the state revolution of sadat and the heir of -- the army is a dominant infusion not only politically and militarily, the security is also huge economic infusion. >> so you are saying that no government would be able -- no transition would be possible and no successive government could govern successfully without the consent of the military. >> the military is essential. because mubarak outgrew the military. >> he became bigger? >> yes. >> in his own mind at least. >> absolutely. he outgrew his country. i think the military could pull back the country from the brink. and i think the military takes its role very seriously like the pakistan military and turkish
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military. they believe they are guardians of the nation. >> paul: what should the u.s. role here be? they seem to have been caught by surprise, frankly, that this was happening. what should they do now? >> well, i don't think barack obama is waiting on me to tell him what he should do. >> paul: no. i think he probably got better advice than he might be getting from the cia, for example. >> we know from the senate intelligence committee they are now underscoring that we didn't read this country right. it's hard to read countries. it's hard to read the mysteries of countries. each the egyptians could never tell that a young man would set himself ablaze in tunisia and the fire and the controversy and the dispute would reach egypt. we haven't done well with egypt, reading egypt. i mean. it's a fact of life but it's very difficult to read distant lands anyway. >> paul: what should the policy be now working behind the scenes to promote a transition, speaking more publicly than we have? >> i think we have done one
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thing well. that's essential to this equation. we have in fact, made sure that the army doesn't go for a massive crackdown. >> right. >> paul: urging that. >> absolutely. in fact, the big difference between iran in the summer of 2009 and egypt right now is the fact that iran was not in our field of influence, that and egypt is in our field of influence. and the kid gloves treatment, if you will, that restraint of the army and police of the mubarak has something to do they are under the gaze of america and the officer corps of the egyptian army which is reliant on american training and american weapons and american economic and military aid does not want to break the bonds with the united states. >> paul: one more question for we don't have a lot of time. but the freedom agenda of george w. bush, is this uprising a vindication of his policy. >> he is a modest man as we know. he is in comfortable retirement. but he can definitely claim
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paternity. here is we are right now. one despot fell in 2003. we decapitated him. two despots in egypt and tunisia fell. direct connection between happened in iraq in 2003 and what is happening in the rest of the arab world. >> paul: thanks so much for being here. more on the crisis in egypt when we come back. the obama administration is backing off its initial support of hosni mubarak. but should we help push him out? our panel debate after the break.
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>> i urge the government and a broad and credible representation of egypt option civil society, and political factions to begin immediately serious negotiations on a peaceful and orderly transition. >> that was secretary of state hillary clinton on thursday calling for an orderly and speedy transition of power in egypt. we're back with more on the crisis there. joining the panel this week "wall street journal" columnist and deputy editor dan hen gear. matt commence ski and mary o-grady. behind the scenes saying to mubarak time to go. is that the right policy it? >> is time for him to go. i think that's been clear for the last few days.
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finally come around to a policy more engaged. it's a stham 2009 wouldn't interfere in affairs. smoother transition. not too late now -- what you are seeing now is a new consciousness in egypt about democracy. i think this should become somewhat optimistic that they can carry this out. >> paul: dan, what do you think. >> i pretty much agree with all of this with one caveat. i agree with what secretary clinton said with a speedy transition and matt as well. what i don't agree with and i think we should support the opposition wholeheartedly as an extension of the bush doctrine. what i don't agree with is that the united states should be seen publicly pushing mubarak out, allah the shaw in 1979. i think that's a mistake. >> why not? >> well, first of all, it will be seen as deposing him by every leader in that region. whatever we think that we do still have real interest there
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related to help on terror. >> paul: are you saying that we will be seen as portraying a long time ally and that message will be heard in jordan and saudi arabia and elsewhere? >> that's right. i think it will degrade our relationship with the intelligence services with those countries which help us in the anti-terror fight it does create real problems for israel as well. so, i'm saying support the opposition, let these events unfold imu but do not be seen as publicly opposing mubarak. >> i think the problem with the obama administration is that spent so much time saying we will not interfere for two years assaying and now very publicly going out and saying he has to go yesterday. and it actually would work out better if they did it the other way around. if they said very clearly "we will defend freedom all around the world." something like this happens, work behind the scenes to see if we can help in the transition. democracy is not just a bunch of people voting. it's institution. >> that one election one time. >> obviously the army is very much in charge here. and there is a lot of work that
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has to be done behind the scenes to allow more than just the muslim brotherhood to be the only organized political entity on the scene. and that will take a little bit of time. >> paul: that's the question, matt, that i think everybody here in the united states wonders about, because everybody loves a revolution in the beginning. the iranian revolution in 19' 9 was full of hope. ultimately it was hijacked. do the egyptians need several months of transition here so the liberal forces that is the non-muslim brotherhood and the non-auto crafts have a chance to organize because right now they are not very organized. >> we learned a lot in the last 30 years of this global wave of democracy of what works, what doesn't work the reason it didn't work in gaza with hamas and hezbollah those parties do not believe in the legitimacy of a democratic system. they have armed mamma militias. rule of law, to ensure that the
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first election is not the last election. >> paul: are you saying that anti-democratic forces should be banned from democratic elections? >> i think they have to sort of -- has to be done through a legal and orderly process. this is where the administration can play a role and bring the experience that it has from eastern europe, from east asia, to bear in egypt. we have been waiting for this to happen for the last 10 years. after 9/11 we said the arab status quo must change. now it's changing. now it's critical for the u.s. to be involved to make sure that it moves in the right direction. >> paul: has the military, in your mind, mary, been playing a responsible role here. >> i think it has. i think it has a lot of interests here that we don't see on camera. >> economic? >> economic interests, yeah. so it wants stability and some sense to keep someone from like gamal mubarak from coming into power and assigning his own version of crony capitalism to the future. so it's been playing a role but
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i think that we have to remember that in a democracy there are more institutions than the military. and right now it seems to me like that's the only institution that we can really count on going forward. >> paul: all right, mary. thanks. when we come back, a bad week for obama care. a federal judge declares it unconstitutional. and some states are already suspending any efforts to comply with its mandates. where does the legal fight go from here?
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>> paul: another very rough week for obama care. the federal judge declares not just part but the entire health care law unconstitutional. u.s. district judge roger vincent ruled monday that congress exceeded its authority by forcing americans to buy health insurance. its the second ruling by a
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federal judge declaring individual mandate unconstitutional. but the first to throw out the whole statute. and already, governors are fleeing with some declaring this week that they are suspending state efforts to comply with obama care's mandates. for more, we're joined by "wall street journal" senior editorial page writer joe rago and opinion journal.com editor james toronto. james, how much more likely is it that the supreme court now will overturn this law based on judge vinson's decision. >> likelier throwing out the entire law and not just pick and choose. he said the individual mandate is essential to the insurance regulation scheme that makes up what they call comprehensive health care reform. you can't just throw out the individual mandate without throwing out thest are of that there are a lot of other pieces to obama care, if you leave those intact without throwing
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out the regulation scheme then you have a bill not what congress intended to pass. a bunch of piecemeal measures. he made a clear case for throwing out the whole law. >> paul: if the individual mandate goes, no big deal, that's the cost control. you conservatives be careful what you wish through, if that goes no subsidies and cost discipline at all. is that something we should worry about? >> it's always real worry with the left that they are going to cause a disaster and more destructiveness. yeah, i think there is a worry. if the supreme court throws out a main plank of this law as unconstitutional, i don't think you can just leave the rest there. i think congress will have to intervene. >> zeal to revisit substantial chunks of it otherwise it will seem to be unworkable. is that what you think? >> i think it will cause -- if you lose the individual mandate and keep everything as it is right now, you will see costs soar across the country. you will see a lot of insurance
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companies just collapse. it will be a very bad problem. >> paul: dan, i want to ask you a political question. do you think the critics of this bill, republicans, conservatives, are putting too much stock in the legal argument in the sense that if the supreme court, we don't know what it will do, decides to uphold obama care in, say, 2012 when the decision is likely to come down, that would be a huge boost for president obama's re-election campaign. i mean, are they putting too much hope in the legal argument, not enough in explaining why this bill is bad? >> well, i think they need to explain why the bill is bad. but i think the legal risk is one that they have to take because the opposite, is possible the supreme court declares this law unconstitutional will be a monumental political defeat for the president. this would be as though they declared medicare or medicaid unconstitutional. this is a big entitlement. i think that the administration and the democrats are in a position of huge political vulnerability right now.
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>> paul: do you still think this is going to the supreme court and justice anthony kennedy is the linch pin vote. >> he probably is the linch pin vote. the liberal also certainly vote to uphold it the only one we can really be sure to vote to overturn it is justice thomas. but i think scalia, alito and roberts will probably vote against it as well. >> joe, so the senate this week took up repeal. it went down to defeat on partisan lines 51-47. all the democrats held together. even the ones who are running for election this year. did that surprise you? >> a little bit. but, you have to remember, all of them voted for it less than a year ago. they circled the wagons, but it's hard to ignore the apaches massing around them. and they did vote to repeal one of the tax provisions in the original bill. this is the 1099 small business reporting mandate. >> burden on small business? >> yeah. and that passed with 80
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something votes. you are starting to see did this bill erode a little bit. >> who are those 17 democrats who voted for the burden on small business. tom carper of delaware suspect for re-election in 2012. did he think that christine o'donnell is going to be his opponent and he has an easy campaign. >> 1099 vote. they are now saying it was a flaw or mistake that somehow snuck into the the bill. oh, please, they knew exactly what they were doing. it was an act of arrogance and made them politically vulnerable. same with the supreme court case this so-called servability issue. they did into the took out the mandate the bill would hold together. >> paul: james, what do you think of the politics here? it's unusual for a law that was supposed to be historic is under such an assault on so many >> that's because it was a one party law. they thought they could govern one party rule. it's a two party.
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every party has voted to repeal a year after it was passed. 28 members on both sides of the capital. so, of course, you know, it's a partisan break down that's because the democrats decided to govern without thinking bipartisan. >> paul: we have not had a major law that was this reviolated since prohibition. we have to take one more break. when we come back, our hits and misses of the[ week. to put our 24-hour frequent heartburn protection to the test for two weeks. [ diehl ] people think we're indestructible, but if you're out there and you're feeling burning it's gonna affect the way that you play. prilosec otc is the one thing i can count on to block my heartburn. when i take it in the morning i'm ready to go for the rest of the day [ male announcer ] prilosec otc. one pill a day, 24 hours, zero heartburn! buy two 42-count boxes of prilosec otc. get $25 back.
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♪ fare thee well ♪ farewell ♪ mr. gloom be on your way ♪ ♪ though you haven't any money you can still be bright and sunny ♪ ♪ sing polly wolly doodle all the day ♪
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♪ hah
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>> paul: hits and misses of the week. mary first to you. this is a hit for the u.s. state department. you will remember that there was an election in haiti in november. the government tried to steal that election. and the fraud was pretty much confirmed by international and local observers. but, for a month, the government tried to stick to its version of the vote. hillary clinton went down to haiti the beginning of last week and on thursday the two other
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candidates, neither of which were there. hand picked candidate will be in the run off. that's good news for the good guys in haiti. >> paul: paul james. >> state lawmakers in scored a big miss by considering legislation that would make it a crime to sell a toy gun to a minor. this is the nanny state run wild. i want our viewers to remember. squirt gun does not squirt squirts. squirts squirt squirts. >> i think i followed that joe? >> cities across the country have been paralyzed by snow this year. we saw it this week in chicago in the midwest. this isn't only because of blizzards but because there is nowhere to put the snow. cities used to dump it in rivers. but the e.p.a. banned that because of salt and other chemicals that would pollute the water. so now the snow just piles up. melts and the chemicals go in the river anyway. this is a miss for the e.p.a. in a rule that